Astronomers have updated their odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth in 2032, with estimates of the possibility rising to 2.3%, up from 1.3% as of December. According to experts from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), though, the likelihood probably will decrease further as more information is gathered.
Citing the Torino Scale rating of 3, a very rare assignment to the 0 to 10 scale that measures asteroid threats, 2024 YR4 is at the top of the most up-to-date lists on risk impact assembled by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS).
“Astronomers state, however, that the danger levels are yet incredibly low and previous similar cases indicate that once future tracking improves the asteroid’s track, such threats will likely dissipate.”.
What We Know About Asteroid 2024 YR4?
The asteroid, up to 300 feet (90 meters) in width, was discovered by NASA-funded astronomers in Chile just before the New Year. It is about the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which flattened 830 square miles of Siberian forest in 1908.
2024 YR4 will pass nearest to Earth on December 22, 2032. While the one in 43 odds of impact sound dire, scientists assure that this number will probably decline as they receive more precise data on its speed and path.
Fluctuating Impact Predictions Are Normal
ESA released a YouTube video, “How Asteroids Go From Threat to No Sweat,” explaining how initial impact risks often appear higher before better calculations rule out the danger.
NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office echoed this sentiment. Researcher Molly Wasser reassured the public that similar high-risk objects in the past have eventually been classified as harmless.
“There have been several objects that rose on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data came in,” Wasser explained.
Can We Deflect the Asteroid If Needed?
Even if 2024 YR4 maintains a high impact probability, scientists are optimistic about planetary defense options. NASA’s DART mission in 2022 successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it.
“This asteroid is of the scale where a mission like DART could be effective, if required,” said Professor Colin Snodgrass of the University of Edinburgh.
For now, astronomers are keeping a close watch on 2024 YR4, gathering more data to refine predictions. While concerns remain, history suggests that the risk will likely decrease with further observations.
