NASA has revealed that asteroid 2024 YR4, which had previously threatened to hit Earth, has a virtually zero probability of hitting our planet. The asteroid was in the news after preliminary calculations indicated a 1% possibility of collision in 2032, making it one of the most worrisome asteroids for scientists.
Astronomers closely observed 2024 YR4, a body 130-300 feet wide, wide enough to destroy our planet when it impacts. Predictions initially predicted the asteroid may impact big cities like Mumbai in India and Lagos in Nigeria. This generated universal panic and activated vast surveys on Earth’s telescopes.
However, as more information was gathered, the chances of an impact fell dramatically. On February 19, they were 1.5%, and by February 20, they were again 0.3%. On Monday, NASA posted a status update on social media stating that the odds of the asteroid colliding with Earth fell to a tiny 0.004% or about one in 25,000. Recently, the chances of a collision have been revised to one in 59,000.
Davide Farnocchia, a Jet Propulsion Laboratory navigation engineer at NASA, was optimistic about the new information, saying that the reduced risk was due to the scientific process working. “I knew this was probably going to disappear as we gathered more data,” Farnocchia said, speaking of the odds of impact dropping.
Even though the asteroid is no longer a threat to Earth, there is still a low possibility—about 1.7%—that 2024 YR4 might crash into the Moon. NASA continues to track its movements using telescopes such as the Lowell Discovery Telescope in Arizona and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands.
By the end of April 2024, YR4 will be out of view until 2028. Nonetheless, scientists have praised the early detection and continued observation of the asteroid, highlighting the importance of planetary defense efforts. “This is a good sign that we’re doing what we’re supposed to do to deal with the risk of asteroid impacts,” Farnocchia concluded.
