With US President Donald Trump threatening to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports, concerns are mounting about whether the Chinese economy is set to withstand the shocks. Trump is looking for a White House return in 2024, and his aggressive trade policy could again spark tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, and it could be very hard for China.
Under his presidency, Trump has imposed blanket tariffs on Chinese imports, triggering a trade war that shook markets globally and strained U.S.-China relations to the breaking point. Re-elected, he has vowed to be even more aggressive, possibly imposing tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports. These would have profound implications for China’s export-led economy, already suffering from slowing growth and domestic pressures.
“China is in a very different place than where it was during the initial Trump administration,” one economist said. “Its economy is weaker today, and additional tariffs would compound vulnerabilities.”
China’s slowdown, fueled by a housing bubble, poor consumer spending, and high youth unemployment, has triggered concerns that it won’t be able to withstand further trade pressure. While China has been attempting to diversify the economy and break dependence on exports, it still remains considerably dependent on foreign trade, notably from the U.S.
Economists say that fresh tariffs would disrupt supply chains, raise the price of doing business, and decrease consumer confidence even more. “The ripple effect would be throughout the world economy,” one trade analyst said. “China would not be singularly impacted—U.S. consumers and companies would have to pay higher prices and see fewer goods.”
In reaction to Trump’s bluster, China has proposed standing up for its own interests. The nation had already acted earlier by imposing retaliatory tariffs on leading U.S. sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture. Nevertheless, some analysts think that China would use a more measured approach this time, considering that it has some economic vulnerabilities currently.
“China will probably think very hard about what it can do,” one political pundit stated. “Although it will not step back completely, it can try not to further exacerbate tensions, which can further hurt its economy.”
The possibility of renewed trade tensions is coming close to a point of great importance for both nations. The U.S. struggles with inflation and financial uncertainty, while China is concerned about economic stabilization and social stability. A full-scale trade war would sabotage the efforts, creating risks for the two nations, if even for the world economy.
As the world waits breathlessly for Trump’s next step, everyone wants to know: Is China prepared to face another round of tariff jolts? Although the nation has remained tenacious in the past, its position at present suggests that things might become tougher in the future.
At the same time, the danger of renewed trade tensions is a reminder of the fraught character of U.S.-China relations—and of the high stakes for both countries in charting a rapidly changing world.
