As the US presidential election approaches, attention tends to center on a small set of battleground states from which the winner will almost surely emerge. With some 330 million eligible voters, the outcome of this election will depend on just a tiny fraction of the citizens in these competitive places. This year, only seven states are truly competitive – hence the peculiar dynamic to navigate for candidates.
The Role of the Electoral College
The US presidential election is not conducted directly based on the popular vote; it is actually governed by the Electoral College. In this system, electoral votes are allocated to each state and Washington, DC based on population. For a candidate to be elected president, they must win at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes. This set-up means that a candidate can win the presidency even if they do not obtain the most popular votes across the country, as in the case of Donald Trump in 2016.
This outcome could send the election to a runoff vote, which shall be determined by the U.S. House of Representatives where each delegation will receive a single vote. Commentators point out that Trump could win on this technicality as it stands based on current politics.
The Seven Key Battlegrounds
Those are the seven states identified to be battlegrounds this election cycle: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. States such as Michigan and Pennsylvania traditionally leaned Democratic until they were flipped by Trump in 2016; however, Biden reclaimed them for the Democratic Party in 2020. The polls are relatively tight at present, and Trump leads in Arizona with minimal differences seen in the other states. A minor shift in preference would, therefore, result in a dramatic difference in the election outcome.
Why is Pennsylvania Important?
Among those battlefields, Pennsylvania is most significant because of its 19 electoral votes; therefore, both candidates consider this as crucial. This state is viewed as a potential tipping point state where winning can propel a candidate beyond the 270-vote mark. If Kamala Harris were to lose Pennsylvania, then she must win states that traditionally voted for Republicans, and that is not possible in any event. In the converse scenario, if Trump loses Pennsylvania, he must rely on states that haven’t voted for Republicans for decades.
Both of the campaigns are highly spent in Pennsylvania, as their advertisement efforts have surpassed over $279 million. High spending shows how crucial a candidate thinks Pennsylvania is for him.
Nebraska’s 2nd District: A Deciding Vote in the Election
Nebraska and Maine divide their electoral votes based on congressional districts. One reason that is keeping much of the spotlight trained on Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, with Omaha at its center, is how competitive it may be. While independent analysts believe Harris will win in this district, one vote can swing an election held by the slimmest of margins. If Harris wins the district, it is possible she wins outright-or at worst, not through a tie.
With election day looming, the spotlights are shining on these battleground states, where decisions by just a few thousand voters could change the political landscape of the nation.
