A newly found asteroid, 2024 YR4, sparked fear over the potential collision of the asteroid with Earth in the year 2032. However, the probabilities are still relatively low, at a 2% chance of collision. Experts are mostly of the opinion that the asteroid will pass by, with a 98% guarantee that it will entirely miss Earth.
Discovered by a Chilean telescope in December 2024, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be 130 feet to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter. While fresh calculations have increased the likelihood of collision moderately, scientists warn that the odds of impact are probably going to shift as more data are gathered. NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) plan to use the Webb Space Telescope in March to make more precise measurements of the asteroid’s size and trajectory.
Once the Webb telescope is done observing, the asteroid will have moved out of view, and scientists will be waiting until 2028 before it comes near Earth again. The astronomers will continue to watch its trajectory so that they can make their predictions more accurate until then. As more data are collected, chances are highly probable that it won’t pose any threat.
Asteroids such as 2024 YR4 are leftovers from the early solar system and reside in the space between Mars and Jupiter, called the asteroid belt. At times, gravitational pulls can nudge them out of their normal course, traveling towards Earth. But as the trajectory of the asteroid is narrowed, scientists are certain that the probability of collision will keep decreasing.
As the experts monitor the asteroid, they are not worried about its impact. Paul Chodas, the director of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Studies, assured the public that the 2% impact probability is due to the limitations of monitoring the asteroid’s exact orbit at the moment. He predicts that the likelihood will drop to zero shortly.
If the asteroid was to hit the planet, what would happen depends on its magnitude. A minor asteroid would tend to cause damage locally, akin to the 1908 Tunguska event, but a larger one might have much more devastating repercussions. Yet with NASA’s defense of the planets, such as a successful 2022 test mission that bent an asteroid from its course, deflection proves to be on the cards.
