A new study puts a number on it: a steep decline in cervical cancer deaths in young women in the U.S., which may be the long-term effects of the human papillomavirus vaccine introduced in 2006.
How Much Does Cervical Cancer Mortality Decline?
In a recent study published in JAMA, researchers documented a sharp decline in cervical cancer deaths among women who were eligible for the HPV vaccine. Ashish Deshmukh, an epidemiologist with the Medical University of South Carolina, hopes that may be due to the HPV vaccine’s impact. “We had a hypothesis that, after almost 16 years, we might start to see the initial impact of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer deaths,” Deshmukh said. The team analyzed cervical cancer mortality data from 1992 to 2021, focusing on women under the age of 25.
Can the HPV Vaccine Prevent More than Just Cervical Cancer?
HPV vaccine prevents many cancers that are related to HPV infection: cervical, vaginal, anal, and oropharyngeal cancers. The researchers cannot with completeness of certainty say that this decline was due to the vaccine itself. However, the timing suggests such. The research showed that before that time, deaths from cervical cancer were declining about 4% every three years through 2013–2015. However, from 2016 to 2021, the decline accelerated, with more than a 60% reduction in mortality rates, to a low of 0.007 deaths per 100,000 women by 2019–2021.
Is This a Sign of Future Success?
These findings are particularly significant for younger women, in whom cervical cancer is still considered a relatively rare disease, but the researchers believe this early success is only the beginning of what will be realized over the next several decades. As vaccination rates continue to increase, the study postulates that the significant decrease in mortality among younger women could continue to extend into the older age groups.
Why Are HPV Vaccination Rates Stagnant in the U.S.?
Despite the encouraging findings, HPV vaccination rates in the U.S. have stalled, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, approximately 77% of teenagers between ages 13 and 17 received at least one dose of the vaccine, a rate that remained almost the same in 2023. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention strive for an 80% vaccination rate by 2030. Public health experts, including Deshmukh, say much more needs to be done if vaccination rates are to rise to sustain further progress in the prevention of cervical cancer.
