NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have again increased the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4, a “city-killer” asteroid, may hit Earth in 2032. The new risk estimate now gives the chances at approximately 3%, the highest ever given to an asteroid impact.
At first, when the asteroid was initially found, both NASA and the ESA put the threat at a mere 1%. This was later revised to 2.6% earlier this week, and now the risk has risen again. NASA’s latest prediction is for a 3.1% chance of collision, which translates to approximately a 1 in 32 probability. The ESA’s calculation is slightly lower, at 2.8%.
Even with these increasing odds, scientists continue to assert that the impact of the asteroid is remote and that the likelihood of a collision is relatively low. Nevertheless, the odds remain on the rise with more information being collected, subjecting the matter to close monitoring. NASA as well as the ESA have affirmed that additional research will lower the odds further.
If the asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, hits Earth, it will trigger a devastating explosion akin to a nuclear bomb. The impact could likely destroy a wide area, including cities. The predicted collision is on December 22, 2032, although this is not sure.
In answer to the growing danger, space agencies are making moves. The government of China recently started recruiting a “planetary defense” squad to protect against potential asteroids such as YR4. Along the lines of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), this will research ways to nudge the asteroid off course and avoid a cataclysmic impact.
While the possibility of asteroid YR4 impacting Earth is still low, the agencies are emphasizing international cooperation and preparedness. While research continues, space agencies hope to learn more about the asteroid’s orbit and improve risk forecasts to be adequately prepared in case the remote scenario materializes.
