With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat. Voters rank the economy as the number one problem by a significant margin, which has defined much of the nation and battleground state dynamics throughout the election.
A Statistical Dead Heat Nationally and in the Battleground States
Nationally, Trump has it at 48% to Harris at 46%, within the poll’s 3.1 percentage point margin of error. In the key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Trump has the edge on Harris by a 48%-47% margin. The contest is like the August poll, extremely tight.
The poll covered 1,000 voters nationwide and added a targeted sample of 586 voters from the battleground states. In any case, given opinion has shifted among key demographic groups that the race is statistically tied at this point. This means that the outcome of this election remains anyone’s guess at this point.
Economic Issue Favors Trump
The economy remains the number one issue for the voters, giving Trump a tremendous advantage. Those voters citing inflation, the economy, and the needs of the middle class to be addressed are in favor of Trump. While there is near parity concerning who would better handle the economy, by 42% to 24%, however, voters believe they would be economically better off with a President Trump; 29% say their financial situation will be the same no matter who wins. Trump leads by 13 points, representing the deep-seated worry that costs are soaring and the economy is on shaky ground.
Inflation remains one of the main issues, even though official statistics show slight signs of easing. “Even as the data show inflation has theoretically been slowing down, it has become more important in people’s minds over the last three quarters,” Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster involved in the survey, said.
Harris Leads on Social Issues, Struggles with Economic Ones
While Trump leads all of the major economic conversations, Harris leads on several significant social issues. She holds a 31-point advantage among voters who are most concerned about abortion, 9 points on protecting democracy, 8 points on health care, and even a commanding 60-point lead on climate change. These issues, though important, rank below the economy in terms of voter concerns.
Can Harris’s lead on these social issues propel her past a deficit on the larger economic questions in which voters side rather more strongly with Trump? The two candidates continue to be statistically tied on which of them would bring the most positive change to the country.
Character Issues Keep the Race Tight
While Trump is clearly in a better economic position, character questions still have much to do with keeping the race close. Harris leads by 13 points over Trump in voters who say she is healthier in both mind and body to serve as president. She also leads by 10 points on honesty and trustworthiness, though there has been some tightening of this gap from the last surveys.
Trump has seen his favorability ratings improve, moving from a -13 net rating in August to -6. Harris saw her net favorability slide from +3 in September to -10.
Inflation Still the Top Concern
Official data show the economy climbing out of the hole, but voters aren’t paying much heed. A solid 75 percent said the price bubble remains a problem; 45 percent said the problem is even accelerating past its earlier pace. Only 16 percent of voters say the problem has started to stabilize, and just 7 percent say their incomes are rising faster than inflation–so even in better times, most voters remain financially fretful.
Now, with economic concerns running high, the two candidates are running head-to-head into the election, staging a highly competitive finish.
